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https://plus.google.com/116884877797854899626 ActivTrades UK : Ger30: Indecision at a key level Yesterday the German federal labour office released the unemployment...
Ger30: Indecision at a key level

Yesterday the German federal labour office released the unemployment rate data that stayed unchanged at 6.4 % in July, the lowest level since 1991, despite an unexpected rise of 9K jobless. Despite the small increase in non-seasonally adjusted terms, German labour market report displays a strong German economy.

Official data showed yesterday that German inflation continues to slow and hit 0.2% a five-month low in July, raising pressures on the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its expansionary monetary policy.
The annual inflation in the euro zone is scheduled to be released today. Investors are expecting that the reading would also remain weak and the unemployment rate is estimated to stay unchanged at 11.1%.

Since the beginning of the year the European locomotive has rose more than 15.0% and is in a warning phase. The Ger30 moved back and forward and close near the open of the day, creating a doji candle pattern, signs of indecision in the market while testing a daily resistance. The stochastic is showing a bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.

Ger30 is a CFD written over DAX30 futures.
 
Leveraged products carry a high degree of risk to your capital and any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
Hugo O’Neill
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-N830c8OJzpo/Vbsbh1JwpfI/AAAAAAAAEpw/GE_I8R_s2Qk/w506-h750/Ger30-Daily-20150730.png
23 minutes ago - Via Google+ - View -
https://plus.google.com/110613080715935643842 Blue Apple Group : Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation - The Euro-Zones CPI report may trigger a...
Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation - The Euro-Zones CPI report may trigger a relief bounce in EUR/USD should sticky price growth dampen bets of seeing the ECB further embark on its easing cycle.
Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation | DailyFX

2 hours ago - Via - View -
https://plus.google.com/114837468381933101921 AvantEdgeFX : Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation - The Euro-Zones CPI report may trigger a...
Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation - The Euro-Zones CPI report may trigger a relief bounce in EUR/USD should sticky price growth dampen bets of seeing the ECB further embark on its easing cycle.
Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation | DailyFX

2 hours ago - Via - View -
https://plus.google.com/115759983140473292645 EconoTimes : The next deadline for Athens is 20 August when a bond repayment of €3.19bn to the ECB is due. #ECB  ...
The next deadline for Athens is 20 August when a bond repayment of €3.19bn to the ECB is due. 
#ECB   #Europe   #Greece   #News  
Can EU agree to fund Greece bailout all by itself if IMF refuses to participate - EconoTimes
The government has set a deadline for Greece of 12 August for negotiations on a third bailout package to conclude, but this may be too optimistic. The next deadline for Athens is 20 August when a bond repayment of 3.19bn...
2 hours ago - Via Google+ - View -
https://plus.google.com/110040665419865987191 Fat Prophets : #Investing #Europe #Bonds #Oil I do think we could see a scenario where funds flow out of US bonds ...
#Investing #Europe #Bonds #Oil

I do think we could see a scenario where funds flow out of US bonds (where rate hikes are on the cards in the next 3-6 months) into European bond markets where the ECB remains very much committed to easing. So we should see yields on longer dated US Treasury bonds continue breaking to the upside. Our Global Funds analyst team have sought to make a play on this view, and have recommended the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF as a buy. The ETF is inversely correlated with longer dated US Treasuries, and will perform if yields continue to rise and bond prices fall.

Europe though of course will keep the pedal to the floor on its own quantitative easing program, having gotten off to a late start relative to the US. We saw US equities triple under the Fed’s QE program, and I believe that the ECB’s version will see a similar tailwind for European equities in the years ahead.

This was clear from data out on Thursday Whilst Europe’s economy is getting better, there still remains a way to go in the recovery story. with Spain seeing second quarter growth of 1% which was up from 0.9% in the first quarter.  The second quarter was the eighth quarterly expansion and on a year ago the economy was 3.1% larger.  While over in Germany the unemployment rate was steady in July at 6.4%.  The month saw 9,000 people becoming unemployed which ended a nine-month period of falling unemployment. So the Germans will also remain supportive (having capitulated and said yes to a QE program) of accommodative monetary policy.
 
That said I still think that in the bigger picture, and the over the longer term, German bund prices are also a compelling short. Yields here are next to nothing, and as the 80’s song from Yazz goes, the only way is up, which is bad news for bund prices. In my view longer dated German bunds remain the ultimate short.
 
The only way is up for 10 year bund yields (pictured)

In this vein our global funds analyst team have also recommended the Lyxor UCITS ETF Daily Double Short Bund as a buy. The ETF is exposed inversely to bund prices, with double leverage to the upward or downward trend of the daily performance of German government bonds, with an average maturity of 10 years.
 
European equity markets saw their third day of modest gains with earnings from Shell and Nokia saw shares in both companies rally.  The STOXX 50 closed the session 0.23% higher while the euro traded at US$1.09.
 
Shell (which we hold in the Concentrated UK Model) saw its shares rally 4% after it announced that it was cutting 6.500 jobs and slashing its capital expenditure budget by around 20 percent this year. The company is swallowing up BG group, and will get efficiencies here, but is deferring, or even cancelling billions of dollars worth of projects. 
 
This goes exactly with what I have been saying about the supply reaction that is going to continue to unfold in the commodity space (and a related consequence of US dollar strength). If the world wants more oil (or other commodities for that matter) it can have it, but this will be at a price. And it is pretty clear that price is not around $50 a barrel where oil currently sits.
 
Projects that are deferred now will lead to further supply pain down the line and it is not just a case of turning the taps on overnight. I therefore think that we are going to see the equilibrium for oil prices reset at much higher levels over the longer term. We are also going to see similar supply reactions in other commodities, including iron ore, which I called the bottom on in yesterday’s daily.
 
Oil has also seen the bottom (pictured)

Elsewhere in the UK, the June quarter or first half earnings season remains in focus with a slew of companies reporting this week.  The UK price comparison site Moneysupermarket (recommended by our analyst team) saw revenue jump by 18% in H1 and EPS rose by 30% to 7.3p.  This was a respectable performance and highlights the operational gearing in the business model.  With the net cash position growing to £22.8m as of June 2015 we may see scope for special dividend payouts in the medium-term.
 
In the medical equipment sector the UK’s largest company, Smith & Nephew (also recommended by our analyst team), saw underlying revenue growth in Q2 come in at 5%.  This was a pickup on the first quarter and saw underlying revenue improved by 4% in the whole of the first half. Underlying trading profit at Smith & Nephew rose by 6% in the first half as the operating margin improved.  The company continues to highlight the steady underlying demand growth in the global healthcare sector.
 
In Europe the listed exchange operator Euronext (another analyst team call) saw third party revenue increase by 11.9% on a year ago in the second quarter to €130m.  This was driven by improved volumes in the cash trading business as the Greek crisis lifted volatility. The group also expects to achieve its objective of €500m of revenue this year and a 53% EBITDA margin.  This is ahead of time and follows strong trading conditions and the execution of the cost reduction plan.
 
Have a great weekend!

Angus.
3 hours ago - Via Reshared Post - View -
https://plus.google.com/107428035657622541601 Angus Geddes CEO : #Investing #Europe #Bonds #Oil I do think we could see a scenario where funds flow out of US bonds ...
#Investing #Europe #Bonds #Oil

I do think we could see a scenario where funds flow out of US bonds (where rate hikes are on the cards in the next 3-6 months) into European bond markets where the ECB remains very much committed to easing. So we should see yields on longer dated US Treasury bonds continue breaking to the upside. Our Global Funds analyst team have sought to make a play on this view, and have recommended the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF as a buy. The ETF is inversely correlated with longer dated US Treasuries, and will perform if yields continue to rise and bond prices fall.

Europe though of course will keep the pedal to the floor on its own quantitative easing program, having gotten off to a late start relative to the US. We saw US equities triple under the Fed’s QE program, and I believe that the ECB’s version will see a similar tailwind for European equities in the years ahead.

This was clear from data out on Thursday Whilst Europe’s economy is getting better, there still remains a way to go in the recovery story. with Spain seeing second quarter growth of 1% which was up from 0.9% in the first quarter.  The second quarter was the eighth quarterly expansion and on a year ago the economy was 3.1% larger.  While over in Germany the unemployment rate was steady in July at 6.4%.  The month saw 9,000 people becoming unemployed which ended a nine-month period of falling unemployment. So the Germans will also remain supportive (having capitulated and said yes to a QE program) of accommodative monetary policy.
 
That said I still think that in the bigger picture, and the over the longer term, German bund prices are also a compelling short. Yields here are next to nothing, and as the 80’s song from Yazz goes, the only way is up, which is bad news for bund prices. In my view longer dated German bunds remain the ultimate short.
 
The only way is up for 10 year bund yields (pictured)

In this vein our global funds analyst team have also recommended the Lyxor UCITS ETF Daily Double Short Bund as a buy. The ETF is exposed inversely to bund prices, with double leverage to the upward or downward trend of the daily performance of German government bonds, with an average maturity of 10 years.
 
European equity markets saw their third day of modest gains with earnings from Shell and Nokia saw shares in both companies rally.  The STOXX 50 closed the session 0.23% higher while the euro traded at US$1.09.
 
Shell (which we hold in the Concentrated UK Model) saw its shares rally 4% after it announced that it was cutting 6.500 jobs and slashing its capital expenditure budget by around 20 percent this year. The company is swallowing up BG group, and will get efficiencies here, but is deferring, or even cancelling billions of dollars worth of projects. 
 
This goes exactly with what I have been saying about the supply reaction that is going to continue to unfold in the commodity space (and a related consequence of US dollar strength). If the world wants more oil (or other commodities for that matter) it can have it, but this will be at a price. And it is pretty clear that price is not around $50 a barrel where oil currently sits.
 
Projects that are deferred now will lead to further supply pain down the line and it is not just a case of turning the taps on overnight. I therefore think that we are going to see the equilibrium for oil prices reset at much higher levels over the longer term. We are also going to see similar supply reactions in other commodities, including iron ore, which I called the bottom on in yesterday’s daily.
 
Oil has also seen the bottom (pictured)

Elsewhere in the UK, the June quarter or first half earnings season remains in focus with a slew of companies reporting this week.  The UK price comparison site Moneysupermarket (recommended by our analyst team) saw revenue jump by 18% in H1 and EPS rose by 30% to 7.3p.  This was a respectable performance and highlights the operational gearing in the business model.  With the net cash position growing to £22.8m as of June 2015 we may see scope for special dividend payouts in the medium-term.
 
In the medical equipment sector the UK’s largest company, Smith & Nephew (also recommended by our analyst team), saw underlying revenue growth in Q2 come in at 5%.  This was a pickup on the first quarter and saw underlying revenue improved by 4% in the whole of the first half. Underlying trading profit at Smith & Nephew rose by 6% in the first half as the operating margin improved.  The company continues to highlight the steady underlying demand growth in the global healthcare sector.
 
In Europe the listed exchange operator Euronext (another analyst team call) saw third party revenue increase by 11.9% on a year ago in the second quarter to €130m.  This was driven by improved volumes in the cash trading business as the Greek crisis lifted volatility. The group also expects to achieve its objective of €500m of revenue this year and a 53% EBITDA margin.  This is ahead of time and follows strong trading conditions and the execution of the cost reduction plan.
 
Have a great weekend!

Angus.
4 hours ago - Via Google+ - View -
https://plus.google.com/107425268860383249498 Willem Hendrik Buiter : Strictly for Econuts only! L.S. Ebrahim Rahbari, Antonio Montilla and I just published a mildly esoteric...
Strictly for Econuts only!

L.S.
 
Ebrahim Rahbari, Antonio Montilla and I just published a mildly esoteric research note for Citi, entitled: What does the ECB have to lose on Greece? (and a refresher course on ELA and Target2), Citi Research, Economics, EMEA, Global Economic View, 30 July 2015.
 
·        The main points are the following:
 
·        The maximal direct exposure of the rest of the Eurosystem (ECB plus the 18 nonGreek national central banks) to Greece consists of exposures to Greece from i) the stock of Bank of Greece funding of Greek banks through repos and other collateralised loans as part of the (risk-pooled) single monetary policy operations plus ii) outright holdings of risk-pooled Greek assets by the rest of the Eurosystem plus iii) outright holdings of supposedly own-risk Greek assets by the Eurosystemex Bank of Greece, plus iv) exposure to the Bank of Greece. 
 
·        Should Greece remain in the Eurozone, defaults of Greek banks and the Greek government could leave the Eurosystem with losses of around €59bn, if neither the Greek government nor future seigniorage income of the Bank of Greece were to absorb any of the losses. In all likelihood, the Eurosystem’s losses would be reduced through some combination of recapitalization of the Bank of Greece by the Greek government and the assignment of (part of) the future seigniorage income of the Bank of Greece to the other Eurosystem NCBs.
 
·        With Grexit, Eurosystem losses on Greek assets could currently amount to €185bn.
 
·        Eurosystem losses, if they occur, would mostly be allocated to individual national central banks according to their share in the ECB’s capital.
 
·        The ECB and NCBs are not subject to statutory capital requirements or external accounting rules. The Eurosystem therefore has considerable discretion as to when and how to realise and recognise losses on its exposure to Greece, should they occur. It could also in principle run with negative (conventional) equity.
 
·        The Eurosystem’s conventional loss-absorption capacity is around €560bn, comfortably above its likely losses on Greek assets even under Grexit. Its total lossabsorption capacity, including the value of future seigniorage, is much larger still
 
The paper can be accessed here:
 
https://ir.citi.com/3%2BBz5LXZKhIJGG43foVfj78kEyVer8H6ugOrFvqKsOqeO4EmZkl5qcxyOcsFF6%2B9M1PiqE97mqQ%3D
 
 
ir.citi.com/3%2BBz5LXZKhIJGG43foVfj78kEyVer8H6ugOrFvqKsOqeO4EmZkl5qcxyOcsFF6%2B9M1PiqE97mqQ%3D

4 hours ago - Via Google+ - View -
https://plus.google.com/104047951999948186971 Kevin Woolcock : “Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” ― Voltaire...
“Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” 
― Voltaire talking about the #CultOfMoney  

The #OneDollarBill   Joins the #CurrencyWars 
In a world of weak domestic demand in many advanced economies and emerging markets, policymakers have been tempted to boost economic growth and employment by going for export led-growth. This requires a weak currency and conventional and unconventional monetary policies to bring about the required depreciation.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks around the world have eased monetary policy, following the lead of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. In the eurozone, countries on the periphery needed currency weakness to reduce their external deficits and jump-start growth. But the euro weakness triggered by quantitative easing has further boosted Germany’s current-account surplus, which was already‎ a whopping 8% of GDP last year. With external surpluses also rising in other countries of the eurozone core, the monetary union’s overall imbalance is large and growing.

In Japan, quantitative easing was the first “arrow” of “Abenomics,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reform program. Its launch has sharply weakened the yen and is now leading to rising trade surpluses.
The upward pressure on the US dollar from the embrace of quantitative easing by the ECB and the BOJ has been sharp. The dollar has also strengthened against the currencies of advanced-country commodity exporters, like Australia and Canada, and those of many emerging markets. For these countries, falling oil and commodity prices have triggered currency depreciations that are helping to shield growth and jobs from the effects of lower exports.
The dollar has also risen relative to currencies of emerging markets with economic and financial fragilities: twin fiscal and current-account deficits, rising inflation and slowing growth, large stocks of domestic and foreign debt, and political instability. Even China briefly allowed its currency to weaken against the dollar last year, and slowing output growth may tempt the government to let the renminbi weaken even more. Meanwhile, the trade surplus is rising again, in part because China is dumping its excess supply of goods – such as steel – in global markets.
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength, because America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. Indeed, at the beginning of the year, there was hope that US domestic demand would be strong enough this year to support GDP growth of close to 3%, despite the stronger dollar. Lower oil prices and job creation, it was thought, would boost disposable income and consumption. Capital spending (outside the energy sector) and residential investment would strengthen as growth accelerated.
But things look different today, and US officials’ exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced. The dollar appreciated much faster than anyone expected; and, as data for the first quarter of 2015 suggest, the impact on net exports, inflation, and growth has been larger and more rapid than that implied by policymakers’ statistical models. Moreover, strong domestic demand has failed to materialize; consumption growth was weak in the first quarter, and #capitalism spending and residential investment were even weaker.
As a result, the US has effectively joined the “currency war” to prevent further dollar appreciation. Fed officials have started to speak explicitly about the dollar as a factor that affects net exports, inflation, and growth.‎ And the US authorities have become increasingly critical of Germany and the eurozone for adopting policies that weaken the euro while avoiding those – for example, temporary fiscal stimulus and faster wage growth – that boost domestic demand.
Moreover, verbal intervention will be followed by policy action, because slower growth and low inflation – partly triggered by a strong dollar – will induce the Fed to exit zero policy rates later and more slowly than expected. That will reverse some of the dollar’s recent gains and shield growth and inflation from downside risks.
Currency frictions can lead eventually to trade frictions, and currency wars can lead to trade wars. And that could spell trouble for the US as it tries to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership. Uncertainty about whether the Obama administration can marshal enough votes in Congress to ratify the TPP has now been compounded by proposed legislation that would impose tariff duties on countries that engage in “currency manipulation.” If such a link between trade and currency policy were forced into the TPP, the Asian participants would refuse to join.
The world would be better off if most governments pursued policies that boosted growth through domestic demand, rather than beggar-thy-neighbor export measures. But that would require them to rely less on monetary policy and more on appropriate fiscal policies (such as higher spending on productive infrastructure). Even income policies that lift wages, and hence labor income and consumption, are a better source of domestic growth than currency depreciations (which depress real wages).
The sum of all trade balances in the world is equal to zero, which means that not all countries can be net exporters – and that currency wars end up being zero-sum games. That is why America’s entry into the fray was only a matter of time.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-joins-currency-wars-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-05
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qRqlHUryHwc/VZx1l-jGbvI/AAAAAAAAjXI/MbBeSVNU4XU/w506-h750/15%2B-%2B1
5 hours ago - Via Reshared Post - View -
https://plus.google.com/104047951999948186971 Kevin Woolcock : “Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” ― Voltaire...
“Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” 
― Voltaire talking about the #CultOfMoney  

The #OneDollarBill   Joins the #CurrencyWars 
In a world of weak domestic demand in many advanced economies and emerging markets, policymakers have been tempted to boost economic growth and employment by going for export led-growth. This requires a weak currency and conventional and unconventional monetary policies to bring about the required depreciation.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks around the world have eased monetary policy, following the lead of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. In the eurozone, countries on the periphery needed currency weakness to reduce their external deficits and jump-start growth. But the euro weakness triggered by quantitative easing has further boosted Germany’s current-account surplus, which was already‎ a whopping 8% of GDP last year. With external surpluses also rising in other countries of the eurozone core, the monetary union’s overall imbalance is large and growing.

In Japan, quantitative easing was the first “arrow” of “Abenomics,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reform program. Its launch has sharply weakened the yen and is now leading to rising trade surpluses.
The upward pressure on the US dollar from the embrace of quantitative easing by the ECB and the BOJ has been sharp. The dollar has also strengthened against the currencies of advanced-country commodity exporters, like Australia and Canada, and those of many emerging markets. For these countries, falling oil and commodity prices have triggered currency depreciations that are helping to shield growth and jobs from the effects of lower exports.
The dollar has also risen relative to currencies of emerging markets with economic and financial fragilities: twin fiscal and current-account deficits, rising inflation and slowing growth, large stocks of domestic and foreign debt, and political instability. Even China briefly allowed its currency to weaken against the dollar last year, and slowing output growth may tempt the government to let the renminbi weaken even more. Meanwhile, the trade surplus is rising again, in part because China is dumping its excess supply of goods – such as steel – in global markets.
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength, because America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. Indeed, at the beginning of the year, there was hope that US domestic demand would be strong enough this year to support GDP growth of close to 3%, despite the stronger dollar. Lower oil prices and job creation, it was thought, would boost disposable income and consumption. Capital spending (outside the energy sector) and residential investment would strengthen as growth accelerated.
But things look different today, and US officials’ exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced. The dollar appreciated much faster than anyone expected; and, as data for the first quarter of 2015 suggest, the impact on net exports, inflation, and growth has been larger and more rapid than that implied by policymakers’ statistical models. Moreover, strong domestic demand has failed to materialize; consumption growth was weak in the first quarter, and #capitalism spending and residential investment were even weaker.
As a result, the US has effectively joined the “currency war” to prevent further dollar appreciation. Fed officials have started to speak explicitly about the dollar as a factor that affects net exports, inflation, and growth.‎ And the US authorities have become increasingly critical of Germany and the eurozone for adopting policies that weaken the euro while avoiding those – for example, temporary fiscal stimulus and faster wage growth – that boost domestic demand.
Moreover, verbal intervention will be followed by policy action, because slower growth and low inflation – partly triggered by a strong dollar – will induce the Fed to exit zero policy rates later and more slowly than expected. That will reverse some of the dollar’s recent gains and shield growth and inflation from downside risks.
Currency frictions can lead eventually to trade frictions, and currency wars can lead to trade wars. And that could spell trouble for the US as it tries to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership. Uncertainty about whether the Obama administration can marshal enough votes in Congress to ratify the TPP has now been compounded by proposed legislation that would impose tariff duties on countries that engage in “currency manipulation.” If such a link between trade and currency policy were forced into the TPP, the Asian participants would refuse to join.
The world would be better off if most governments pursued policies that boosted growth through domestic demand, rather than beggar-thy-neighbor export measures. But that would require them to rely less on monetary policy and more on appropriate fiscal policies (such as higher spending on productive infrastructure). Even income policies that lift wages, and hence labor income and consumption, are a better source of domestic growth than currency depreciations (which depress real wages).
The sum of all trade balances in the world is equal to zero, which means that not all countries can be net exporters – and that currency wars end up being zero-sum games. That is why America’s entry into the fray was only a matter of time.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-joins-currency-wars-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-05
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qRqlHUryHwc/VZx1l-jGbvI/AAAAAAAAjXI/MbBeSVNU4XU/w506-h750/15%2B-%2B1
5 hours ago - Via Reshared Post - View -
https://plus.google.com/104047951999948186971 Kevin Woolcock : “Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” ― Voltaire...
“Don't think #money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.” 
― Voltaire talking about the #CultOfMoney  

The #OneDollarBill   Joins the #CurrencyWars 
In a world of weak domestic demand in many advanced economies and emerging markets, policymakers have been tempted to boost economic growth and employment by going for export led-growth. This requires a weak currency and conventional and unconventional monetary policies to bring about the required depreciation.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks around the world have eased monetary policy, following the lead of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. In the eurozone, countries on the periphery needed currency weakness to reduce their external deficits and jump-start growth. But the euro weakness triggered by quantitative easing has further boosted Germany’s current-account surplus, which was already‎ a whopping 8% of GDP last year. With external surpluses also rising in other countries of the eurozone core, the monetary union’s overall imbalance is large and growing.

In Japan, quantitative easing was the first “arrow” of “Abenomics,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reform program. Its launch has sharply weakened the yen and is now leading to rising trade surpluses.
The upward pressure on the US dollar from the embrace of quantitative easing by the ECB and the BOJ has been sharp. The dollar has also strengthened against the currencies of advanced-country commodity exporters, like Australia and Canada, and those of many emerging markets. For these countries, falling oil and commodity prices have triggered currency depreciations that are helping to shield growth and jobs from the effects of lower exports.
The dollar has also risen relative to currencies of emerging markets with economic and financial fragilities: twin fiscal and current-account deficits, rising inflation and slowing growth, large stocks of domestic and foreign debt, and political instability. Even China briefly allowed its currency to weaken against the dollar last year, and slowing output growth may tempt the government to let the renminbi weaken even more. Meanwhile, the trade surplus is rising again, in part because China is dumping its excess supply of goods – such as steel – in global markets.
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength, because America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. Indeed, at the beginning of the year, there was hope that US domestic demand would be strong enough this year to support GDP growth of close to 3%, despite the stronger dollar. Lower oil prices and job creation, it was thought, would boost disposable income and consumption. Capital spending (outside the energy sector) and residential investment would strengthen as growth accelerated.
But things look different today, and US officials’ exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced. The dollar appreciated much faster than anyone expected; and, as data for the first quarter of 2015 suggest, the impact on net exports, inflation, and growth has been larger and more rapid than that implied by policymakers’ statistical models. Moreover, strong domestic demand has failed to materialize; consumption growth was weak in the first quarter, and #capitalism spending and residential investment were even weaker.
As a result, the US has effectively joined the “currency war” to prevent further dollar appreciation. Fed officials have started to speak explicitly about the dollar as a factor that affects net exports, inflation, and growth.‎ And the US authorities have become increasingly critical of Germany and the eurozone for adopting policies that weaken the euro while avoiding those – for example, temporary fiscal stimulus and faster wage growth – that boost domestic demand.
Moreover, verbal intervention will be followed by policy action, because slower growth and low inflation – partly triggered by a strong dollar – will induce the Fed to exit zero policy rates later and more slowly than expected. That will reverse some of the dollar’s recent gains and shield growth and inflation from downside risks.
Currency frictions can lead eventually to trade frictions, and currency wars can lead to trade wars. And that could spell trouble for the US as it tries to conclude the mega-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership. Uncertainty about whether the Obama administration can marshal enough votes in Congress to ratify the TPP has now been compounded by proposed legislation that would impose tariff duties on countries that engage in “currency manipulation.” If such a link between trade and currency policy were forced into the TPP, the Asian participants would refuse to join.
The world would be better off if most governments pursued policies that boosted growth through domestic demand, rather than beggar-thy-neighbor export measures. But that would require them to rely less on monetary policy and more on appropriate fiscal policies (such as higher spending on productive infrastructure). Even income policies that lift wages, and hence labor income and consumption, are a better source of domestic growth than currency depreciations (which depress real wages).
The sum of all trade balances in the world is equal to zero, which means that not all countries can be net exporters – and that currency wars end up being zero-sum games. That is why America’s entry into the fray was only a matter of time.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-joins-currency-wars-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-05
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https://plus.google.com/102566389798215831612 Angela Richardson : dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de Für +Birgit Kenter, +Christina Schon, +Willi...
dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de

Für +Birgit Kenter+Christina Schon, +Willi Domroese, +Werner Hofmann & +Mike Reichardt ... just to tease you ... :-)

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https://plus.google.com/102566389798215831612 Angela Richardson : dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de Für +Birgit Kenter, +Christina Schon, +Willi...
dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de

Für +Birgit Kenter+Christina Schon, +Willi Domroese, +Werner Hofmann & +Mike Reichardt ... just to tease you ... :-)

#monochrome  #monochromephotography  #blackandwhite  
#blackandwhitephotography 



#BTPOtherPro+BTP Other Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Hugh Ferguson
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#HQSPUrbanStreetPhotos  +HQSP Urban & Street Photos curated by +Michael Sonntag +Оксана Крысюкова  +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Roxanne Bouche' Overton
#hqspmonochrome +HQSP Monochrome curated by +Luis Vivanco S. +Оксана Крысюкова +tri rini nuringtyas +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Giuseppe Petruzzella
 
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https://plus.google.com/104789812456766183818 Irma Szabó : dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de Für +Birgit Kenter, +Christina Schon, +Willi...
dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de

Für +Birgit Kenter+Christina Schon, +Willi Domroese, +Werner Hofmann & +Mike Reichardt ... just to tease you ... :-)

#monochrome  #monochromephotography  #blackandwhite  
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#BTPOtherPro+BTP Other Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Hugh Ferguson
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#MagnificentMonochrome +Magnificent Monochrome Curated by +Christian Madsen and +Kardiyanti Djunaidi
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#hqsparchitecture +HQSP Architecture curated by +Roman Kruglov and +Nader El Assy
#HQSPUrbanStreetPhotos  +HQSP Urban & Street Photos curated by +Michael Sonntag +Оксана Крысюкова  +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Roxanne Bouche' Overton
#hqspmonochrome +HQSP Monochrome curated by +Luis Vivanco S. +Оксана Крысюкова +tri rini nuringtyas +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Giuseppe Petruzzella
 
#leica  #leicacamera  #leicammonochrom
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https://plus.google.com/107877279238709583507 Kuson S : dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de Für +Birgit Kenter, +Christina Schon, +Willi...
dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de

Für +Birgit Kenter+Christina Schon, +Willi Domroese, +Werner Hofmann & +Mike Reichardt ... just to tease you ... :-)

#monochrome  #monochromephotography  #blackandwhite  
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#BTPOtherPro+BTP Other Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Hugh Ferguson
#BTPCityscapePro+BTP Cityscape Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Dan Shehan (D3CityPics)
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#BTPMonochromePro+BTP Monochrome Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey ,curated by +Jesse Martineau
#MagnificentMonochrome +Magnificent Monochrome Curated by +Christian Madsen and +Kardiyanti Djunaidi
#photomaniagermany  +Photo Mania Germany kuratiert von +Sandra Deichmann & +Markus Landsmann & +dietmar rogacki & +Nico Kaiser
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#tavid  #PlusPhotoExtract  #500px 
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#urbaninviewsandlife +URBAN - in views and life by +Edith Kukla
#hqsparchitecture +HQSP Architecture curated by +Roman Kruglov and +Nader El Assy
#HQSPUrbanStreetPhotos  +HQSP Urban & Street Photos curated by +Michael Sonntag +Оксана Крысюкова  +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Roxanne Bouche' Overton
#hqspmonochrome +HQSP Monochrome curated by +Luis Vivanco S. +Оксана Крысюкова +tri rini nuringtyas +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Giuseppe Petruzzella
 
#leica  #leicacamera  #leicammonochrom
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https://plus.google.com/115083263353126293055 Thomas Deckert : dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de Für +Birgit Kenter, +Christina Schon, +Willi...
dark Frankfurt former ECB building     www.famous-jamie.de

Für +Birgit Kenter+Christina Schon, +Willi Domroese, +Werner Hofmann & +Mike Reichardt ... just to tease you ... :-)

#monochrome  #monochromephotography  #blackandwhite  
#blackandwhitephotography 



#BTPOtherPro+BTP Other Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Hugh Ferguson
#BTPCityscapePro+BTP Cityscape Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey , curated by +Dan Shehan (D3CityPics)
#BTPArchitecturePro+BTP Architecture Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey ,curated by +Aamir Shahzad
#BTPMonochromePro+BTP Monochrome Pro . founded by +Rinus Bakker , owned by +Nancy Dempsey ,curated by +Jesse Martineau
#MagnificentMonochrome +Magnificent Monochrome Curated by +Christian Madsen and +Kardiyanti Djunaidi
#photomaniagermany  +Photo Mania Germany kuratiert von +Sandra Deichmann & +Markus Landsmann & +dietmar rogacki & +Nico Kaiser
#strictlyphotographers  by +Strictly Photographers
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#tavid  #PlusPhotoExtract  #500px 
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#HQSPUrbanStreetPhotos  +HQSP Urban & Street Photos curated by +Michael Sonntag +Оксана Крысюкова  +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Roxanne Bouche' Overton
#hqspmonochrome +HQSP Monochrome curated by +Luis Vivanco S. +Оксана Крысюкова +tri rini nuringtyas +Jean-Philippe Jouve and +Giuseppe Petruzzella
 
#leica  #leicacamera  #leicammonochrom
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10 hours ago - Via Google+ - View -
https://plus.google.com/110429841714696003678 Robert S. Finnegan : Greece's Tsipras Challenges Party Bailout Critics To Showdown Snivelling traitor now attempts Bush/Obama...
Greece's Tsipras Challenges Party Bailout Critics To Showdown
Snivelling traitor now attempts Bush/Obama double-down tactic in attempt to justify his selling-out of the Greek people and their overwhelming "NO" vote he voided at the behest of his ECB/IMF masters   REUTERS By Renee Maltezou and Angeliki Koutantou 07/31/...
Greece's Tsipras Challenges Party Bailout Critics To Showdown ~ THE 5TH ESTATE ASIA
Snivelling traitor now attempts Bush/Obama double-down tactic in attempt to justify his selling-out of the Greek people and their overwhelming "NO" vote he voided at the behest of his ECB/IMF masters. REUTERS By Renee Maltezou and Angeliki Koutantou. 07/31/2015. ATHENS - ...
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https://plus.google.com/100923547345187632021 Ohne Sorg : Earlier this month Greece repaid €6.8 billion to the ECB and the IMF, after it received a €7 billion...
Earlier this month Greece repaid €6.8 billion to the ECB and the IMF, after it received a €7 billion bridging loan from international creditors.

Greece intends to finish the talks by August 20, when a €3.2 billion bond repayment to the ECB is due.

The IMF has repeatedly said European creditors should write-down a massive amount of Greek debt or give Greece a 30-year grace period if they want it to recover and repay. The fund called Greece’s debt unsustainable, warning the €86 billion program will not save Greece from financial collapse
IMF won’t join Greece’s rescue unless creditors agree on debt relief - media
The IMF said it can’t reach a ‘staff level agreement’ on Greece’s €86 billion bailout at this stage and will make the decision on further involvement in the deal only after Athens agrees on a ‘comprehensive set of reforms’ and creditors on debt relief.
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